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MIGUEL VELAZCO, MBA Realtor®_CAL_BRE_License#:001361531

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Pricing damage done, but be on guard

Over the past couple of days, we've been painfully reminded just how quickly things can change in the Bond Market. Just when prices are muddling along in a sideways trend...clients get complacent about rates...they delay making a decision...BANG! The Bond market drops, rates rise and as we typically see time and again, the sell-off is not just a 24 hour event, it can be a multi-day or even week long sell-off. Now what? Let's dig in and discuss

When talking with clients and referral partners, this move lower in Bonds should really have been no surprise...not only because we passed along the Alert to Lock, but yields had moved to ultra-low levels, so from an investor standpoint, Bonds really didn't make sense when compared to other assets like Stocks. Bond prices were simply due to give up some of their frothy gains. So when the Fed's silence on QE3 was deafening...that was the straw that broke the proverbial camel's back. Traders were hoping that the Fed would elude to even more easing in the form of QE3, which would likely push Bond prices higher in the near-term. When that didn't happen, their disappointment has turned into a multi-day slide.

This is precisely why clients need a professional like us to decipher the economic reports, which have the potential to be highly market moving going forward. And a clear understanding of where the Bond Market is trading technically will also be a must.

With that said, this morning's economic news showed Initial Jobless Claims at 351,000, a smidge lower than the 355,000 expected. The Empire State Manufacturing Index, which is a read on manufacturing in the NYC area, came in at 20.2, nicely above the 15.0 expected. And wholesale producer inflation as measured by the Producer Price Index came in at 0.4%, less than the 0.5% expected. The Core PPI came in at 0.2%, meeting expectations.

Overall, today's news was good for the economy and shows that things are indeed improving...hence why Mortgage Bonds remain under selling pressure. Going forward, if the economic news shows continued improvement, we could see rates move higher still.

Something we have said over and over..."be careful what you wish for" lower rates likely means there is increased uncertainty, confusion or pain somewhere in the economy or world. There are still plenty of fundamental land mines that could blow at any point and quickly renew a safe haven trade into US Bonds. Pick your poison - whether it is the Eurodrama, which is far from over, the likelihood of Greece's eventual default, Portugal lining up next with problems, along with Spain, making waves as the country will likely fail to meet an even lower revised budget deficit target. Oh, then there's Israel and Iran - is this story going to just disappear? Not likely. Not to mention uncertainty within our US political environment - we get to enjoy another wonderful (add the heavy sarcasm) year of political divide - but now on very big issues - including Taxes. And Stocks - having risen so sharply over the past several months - a correction or move lower is due. But that may not come tomorrow. We would not be surprised to see a repeat of last year, when we saw Stocks "sell in May and go away"...this to the benefit of Bonds.

As you can see, there's a lot to consider and many wild cards. After such a swift decline, the Bond is ripe to rebound some - but as we've said, it may not happen today or tomorrow, as Traders won't rush into the market and "try to catch a falling knife."



CEO & President STOPRE Corp.

REALTOR, DRE # 01361531

RE/MAX Active Realty 4056 Decoto Rd. Fremont, CA 94555

Bank Owned Properties / REO (Real Estate Owned) Consultant

Some Certif.; CDPE, RESNET, REOMAC, FiveStarInstitute,  REO, BPO, Commercial, etc.

Available to Buy or Invest?

CALL TODAY for FREE INFO., Property VALUATION, &/or Market Updates!

Direct: [c] 1-(510) 938-1866     or TOLL FREE

Call Today: [o] 1-888-MIGUEL-8, OR 1-888-[644835]-8

Board Director Bay East Assoc. of Realtors[BEAR] 2006-07

BEAR-Professional Standards Member.

Rising Star Awarded. BEAR Pinnacle Awarded.

RE/MAX Hall of Fame & Platinum Club Awarded.

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What my clients are saying  

Miguel is an excellent professional; he is the best real estate agent that I could have known. I met him a in the middle of my plans to sell my home. He was a rare to find personality on these days. He is a very dynamic person and never leaves behind what can be done now. He is very efficient, totally results-oriented. He gave me the best orientation before, during and after the sale of my home. My right arm. He was always pending of each step to be taken, the promotion, the offers, the deadlines and terms of the sale, the inspections, the Title Office, the contract, closing the sale, there was not a moment when he did not stop orienting me. And of course thanks to him I sold my house above the price originally offered and in less than a month. If you don't hire Miguel for the sale of your house, forgive me, but you're a fool.”


~ gaproano (Zillow Review)

“...I have employed the services of Miguel Velazco as listing agent. He is a true Professional. ...I have never had a smoother transaction from listing to end of sale ever. Anyone using Miguel’s services would be very fortunate.” ~Easter Jestadt [84 years young]”






APRIL 2015 SAN RAMON SELLERS "...It is our immense please to recommend Miguel Velazco to anyone looking to buy or sell a home. ...aggressive marketing campaign,... team of talented individuals,... masterful marketing strategy,... he kept us apprised throughout the entire process and made certain the entire process is pleasant for us the seller,... thanks to the magic work of Miguel Velazco..."



RE: Recommendation letter To whom it may concern: It is a genuine pleasure and honor for me to recommend Miguel Velazco Sr., MBA, a wealth builder-Realtor. In today’s global interconnected world, Miguel possesses unique well-rounded attributes transitioning from residential to commercial Real estate sales. Miguel’s office has a fascinating blend of multi-cultural and multi-lingual real estate team. He is highly educated, he understands real estate Legal, Ethical, Marketing, and Win-Win Negotiations; he is able to manage complicated challenging transactions with intelligence. Miguel provides exceptional service; it is a delight to work with him and his team. I always recommend Miguel to my close friends and corporate clients all over the US territory. If you have any further questions I can be reached direct via email at: Sincerely, Shulin Cui, CEO SilicaStar



To: Mr. Miguel Velazco RE/MAX Dear Miguel, On behalf of my mother, sister and myself, I want to thank you so much for your undying efforts to sell our property from our family trust. My mother has peace of mind & she is thrilled. We knew from the start this property would be a difficult sale due to its condition and the mitigating circumstances surrounding it. You never wavered in your efforts to sell it, and you did everything in your power to administer the terms of the sale as we requested. To your credit, you never asked us to accept an offer or terms we were not comfortable with like so many other realtors might have done just to accomplish a quick sale. Every decision you helped us make was with our best interest at heart. Your honesty, professionalism, and determination set you apart from other agents in your field. Thank you Miguel, we will never sell another property without your representation. Sincerely, Diana Wyllie [] Irene Liranzo Sandra Seat



Recently I contacted Miguel's team in order to sell my home. Although market adverse value/condition of house, Miguel's team not only sold my home at a price I was comfortable with but the team did it all inside of 39 days from listing to close! They are very organized, knowledgeable and detail oriented. I would not even consider attempting another real estate transaction without them.


~ Country Club

"I have not found another Agent that is half the quality... he is the asset you want on your side. MIGUEL is a prompt and efficient "go getter". I have used him twice to sell and purchase a home and our last sale took just 35 days from list to close. THE TEAM is extremely knowledgeable about what needs to happen and when, he is also not afraid to push if others are falling behind. For any person expecting professionalism in their Realtor. The Meltzers"


~ Relocation

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